UK-based researcher develops forecasting tool to predict energy use a decade in advance

03.02.2017
Moulay Larbi Chalal

A researcher has developed a forecasting tool which can predict an individual’s or an entire city’s energy needs ten years in advance to enhance the way planners achieve environmental targets and help those in fuel-poverty understand their future needs.
Moulay Larbi Chalal, a PhD candidate at Nottingham Trent University, used data from more than 6,000 households over a 17-year period to monitor how people’s requirements for gas and electricity evolve over the course of a lifetime.
The forecasting tool is based on data taken from the British Household Panel Survey and was developed in collaboration with Nottingham Energy Partnership.
“The UK household sector consumes more than a quarter of the nation’s gas and electricity and is responsible for around 20% of the county’s total carbon dioxide emissions,” said Moulay, who’s studying in the School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment.
“So developing suitable ways to reduce CO2 emissions is important if we’re to meet strict environmental targets and ensure a more sustainable development of our urban areas.”
The forecasting tool can show, for instance, that the average single, non-elderly person has almost a 20% chance of finding a partner and moving in with that partner within five years. Of those newfound couples, 53% will go on to have a child during the same period.

Probable future energy needs can then be calculated based on this data. For instance, around 26% of those couples without children will use more than 4,000 Kwhs of electricity per year. While the same amount of energy will be used by as many as 35% of couples with children.

Congratulations Moulay! with my best wishes

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